Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy 2017: Renewables Win Out (until you add a battery for the intermittency problem)

So, getting closer, but not yet baseload.

From Lazard:

Executive Summary

Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis —Version 11.0

The central findings of our LCOE analysis include: 1) certain Alternative Energy technologies (e.g., wind and utility -scale solar), which became cost -competitive with conventional generation several years ago, are, in some scenarios, approaching a LCOE that is at or below the marginal cost of certain conventional generation technologies; 2) despite the sustained and growing cost-competitiveness of certain Alternative Energy technologies, advanced economies will require diverse generation fleets to meet baseload generation needs for the foreseeable future; and 3) a rational and cost-based analysis is necessary to enable a modern grid, cost -effective energy development and an increasingly clean energy economy.

1) Certain Alternative Energy technologies (e.g., wind and utility -scale solar), which became cost -competitive with conventional generation several years ago, are, in some s cenarios, approaching a LCOE that is at or below the marginal cost of certain conventional generation technologies*

• Global LCOE values for Alternative Energy technologies continue to decline, reflecting, among other things: (a) downward pressure on financing costs as a result of continuously evolving, and growing pools of capital being allocated to Alternative Energy; (b) declining capital expenditures per project resulting from decreased equipment costs; (c) increased competition among Industry participants as markets evolve policies towards auctions and tenders for the procurement of Alternative Energy capacity (and away from standard offer programs, Feed-in-Tariffs, etc.); and (d) improving competencies in asset management and operation and maintenance e xecution

• As LCOE values for Alternative Energy technologies continue to decline, they are, in some scenarios, at or below the marginal cost of certain conventional generation technologies (e.g., coal and nuclear, which can have variable and fuel costs that are significant on a $/MWh basis). We believe this trend will lead to ongoing and significant deployment of Alternative Energy capacity. However, such displacement will be moderated by the intermittent nature of Alternative Energy generation (discussed further herein) and the current reluctance of capital providers to underwrite merchant exposure, as well as an understanding of the need for resource diversity in a modern electric grid
• Costs continue to decline for Alternative Energy technologies, albeit at a modestly slowing rate. The gap between the costs of certain Alternative Energy technologies (e.g., utility -scale solar photovoltaic and utility -scale onshore wind) and conventional generation technologies continues to widen as the cost profiles of such conventional generation technologies remain flat (e.g., coal) and, in certain instances, increase (e.g., nuclear)

• A number of leading Industry participants are beginning to develop utility -scale wind and solar “plus storage” offerings, thereby increasing capacity factors and serving grid needs not currently met by existing intermittent generation resources. We have included a preliminary analysis of the levelized cost of one such illu strative future offering, which compares favorably to its nearest competition, solar thermal with storage

• Certain large -scale conventional and renewable generation projects (e.g., IGCC, nuclear, solar thermal, etc.) continue to face a number of challenges , including significant cost contingencies, high absolute costs, competition from relatively cheap natural gas in selected geographies, operating difficulties and policy uncertainty

2) Despite the sustained and growing cost -competitiveness of certain Alte rnative Energy technologies, advanced economies will require diverse generation fleets to meet baseload generation needs for the foreseeable future... 

*This analysis does not take into account potential social and environmental externalities (e.g., the social costs of distributed generation, environmental consequences of conventional generation, etc.) or reliability - or intermittency - related considerations (e.g., grid investment required to manage intermittency).

...MORE (5 page PDF)

 From Lazard Perspective, November 2, 2017:

Lazard’s latest annual Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis (LCOE 11.0) shows a continued decline in the cost of generating electricity from alternative energy technologies, especially utility-scale solar and wind.

 ...MUCH MORE, including links to the full report,