Sunday, January 14, 2018

Mr. Obama, Mr. Cameron, About that Libya Thing

First up some background from Al-Monitor, January 5:

Hifter set to cast wide influence in potential Libyan elections
In a surprising move, Gen. Khalifa Hifter, Libya’s eastern military strongman, announced his acceptance of elections in Libya as a way out of the political deadlock in the war-ravaged country. Spokesman Brig. Gen. Ahmed al-Mesmari announced the decision in a news conference Dec. 27.
However, Mesmari said his boss agreed to the elections only if they are organized under “United Nations and Arab League supervision,” while calling on the country’s parliament to pass a new electoral law within “reasonable time.” Both conditions are likely to be met since the United Nations is in charge of the whole political process in the country and the current election law is likely to be amended because different political groups and a large number of the general public reject it given its unclarity and its favoring of independent contestants over political parties. The current election law also does not exempt holders of dual nationality citizens from running in elections, which directly violates Libya’s current citizenship law.

This sudden but significant development raises the following question: What made Hifter change his mind and how important it is for the UN-proposed elections, due sometime in the spring, and for the country on the eve of the seventh anniversary in February of its so-called revolution, which has caused chaos in the North African state since 2011?

But let’s not forget that this is not the first time the commander of the largest military force in the country committed himself to elections. In a meeting hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on July 26, 2017, Hifter made a similar commitment. But no elections took place to see if the military man would honor what he agreed to. Furthermore, Hifter had rejected the elections and announced Dec. 17 the end of the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) signed on Dec. 17, 2015. So why should Hifter be trusted this time?

It appears that Hifter’s biggest fear was being isolated by the world community and regional powers, including his main backers such as Egypt, if he refused the proposed elections. The UN Security Council reiterated in a Dec. 14 statement its support to the political road map proposed by UN special envoy Ghassan Salame, including holding elections to try to stabilize Libya after years of lawlessness. Egypt and other countries repeatedly expressed their support for the LPA as the only way out of the chaos in neighboring Libya.

Hifter is indeed popular, at least in eastern Libya. However, it is difficult to express that popularity in numbers since there is no professional opinion polls in the country. But it is worth noting that during the summer of 2017, a public campaign launched by activists supporting him called on the Tobruk-based parliament to mandate him, without elections, to lead the country for the coming four years. Despite all of this, it is very doubtful that Hifter will run in the elections at this time, given the prevailing lack of trust and his own fears....MORE

And from the Libya Observer some Turkish mischief making:

Libya demands explanations from Turkey and Greece over explosives-laden ship
The Presidential Council has established contacts with Turkey and Greece to verify the news of the seizure of a ship in Greece carrying containers loaded with explosives after leaving a Turkish port.
The Libyan Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Friday that it had demanded Greek authorities to inform it of the latest results regarding the investigations, stressing that it is following the case with the relevant authorities in Greece and Turkey through diplomatic channels.

The Ministry expressed deep alarm and condemnation in what they described as “any attempt to harm Libya in any way”, stressing that the government is committed to international laws and norms and relevant United Nations resolutions....MORE
So I guess the question is: What on earth were the Western Powers thinking when they destabilized Libya back in 2011?
And does "You break it, you own it" mean what I think it means? That there's going to be a nasty, nasty war and the West will have to get involved?
Yikes

Regarding the headline, President Obama has gone on record: "Obama: Aftermath of Gaddafi overthrow, 'worst mistake as president'"
I'm not sure about Mr. Cameron but he was also in it up to his eyeballs.