Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Gold Miners ETF Flows Point to Bearish Bets (GDX)

We've been waiting patiently for a decent risk-reward profile on the long side in this critter for months and, thinking one might be near began posting as much in the last month as in the last year. It's not here yet. $29.52 Down $0.39. Here's the six-month picture via Yahoo Finance:
Chart forMarket Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

That low was at $27.27 on April 17 and $27.47 on the 18th.
And from MoneyBeat:
It might seem as if investors have had a love-hate relationship with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF over the past two weeks, but a closer look at the fund flows suggests traders were bearish all along.

When gold prices collapsed two weeks ago, taking shares of gold-mining stocks down for the ride, there was a surge of new issuance of GDX shares. On the surface that might have been a bullish sign, suggesting investors were buying shares in order to bet on a bounce.

But in this case, traders say the jump of new issuance actually reflected expectations of bearish bets on the $5.8 billion exchange-traded fund. One of the quirks of the ETF market allows market makers to create shares for the sole purpose of lending them to short sellers. Since then, the share count has been shrinking and money has headed out the door of the fund....MUCH MORE
Recently:
Goldman Sachs on Australian Gold Miner Cash Costs
Now That the FTSE Gold Miners Have Lost $169 Billion of Market Cap... (ABX; NEM)
Big Prints In Bearish Options on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Barclays: "If Gold Was "Just A Commodity" What Would Be Its Support Price?" (ABX; G; GLD; NEM)
Cassandra Likes Gold Miners (XAU; GDX; HUI)
Cassandra's fate was to foresee the future but have no one believe her.
She was also the second most beautiful woman in the world and deranged....

...Here's Cassie after taking the dive into Vancouver- listed Canadian juniors:


Cassandra by Evelyn De Morgan
(1898, London); Cassandra in front 
of the burning city of Troy
at the peak of her insanity