Saturday, January 19, 2013

March of Folly: China Calls U.S. Position on Japan-China Dispute "Betrayal".

Although I used the title of Barbara Tuchman's 1984 book subtitled "From Troy to Vietnam" about the persistence of error in human affairs exemplified by the quote:
A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests. Mankind, it seems, makes a poorer performance of government than of almost any other human activity. In this sphere, wisdom, which may be defined as the exercise of judgment acting on experience, common sense and available information, is less operative and more frustrated than it should be. Why do holders of high office so often act contrary to the way reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests? Why does intelligent mental process seem so often not to function?
 — Barbara Tuchman,  “The March of Folly.” 
it was another of her works, "The Guns of August" that is actually a better descriptor of what is going on between China and Japan.

The inexorable movement toward a seemingly inevitable result was her core theme fleshed out with the miscommunication and  random blundering that shape the details, all the while showing that nothing was inevitable.
Tuchmann painted the picture well enough that during the Cuban Missile Crisis President Kennedy was able to extract that message and avoid the inevitable nuclear with the Soviet Union.

She ends the story on the last day of August 1914 with, unknown to the participants, fifty months of the nastiest bloodletting the world had seen to that point:
"The nations were caught in a trap, a trap made during the first thirty days out of battles that failed to be decisive, a trap from which there was, and has been, no exit."
Let's hope the Chinese and Japanese have a translation handy.
Here's the latest:

The Economist is going with "The drums of war: Armed clashes over trivial specks in the East China Sea loom closer"
Bloomberg: "Japan Won’t Concede to China Over Islands, Kishida Says"
Voice of America: "US Opposes Any Unilateral Action on Japan/China Island Dispute"
PressTV: "Clinton warns China on its territorial dispute with Japan over islands"
The South China Morning Post: "US position on Japan island dispute a 'betrayal': China"
Reuters: "Special Report: China’s Military Hawks Take the Offensive"
China Daily: "Japanese FM heads to US for talks"

On the other hand Mrs. Tuchman wasn't completely gloomy about people and their governments. When asked to give The 1980 Jefferson Lecture her speech was titled "Mankind's Better Moments".

Here's an MP3.